Monday Jan 9 – This quick update is about a small band of precipitation that will try to arrive with a mid level warm front (at cloud level). The timing of this piece of energy will be in the morning, after sunrise. The surface temperatures will still be well below freezing. But, warming will be taking place at cloud level that could allow for some sleet or freezing drizzle. This will be the beginning of the warm up this week.

Typical this type of set up will cross the mountains and dry up east of Hagerstown. But there is enough support that ‘something’ might survive. If anything I would suggest the best chance would be along and north of I-70 to the PA line and into Pennsylvania. So, I figured I had to mention it. But I don’t want to scare you or over hope your hopes for a delay.

This band will be light and the timing will be after sunrise. But at this point, the potential error in track and timing should open the window for a 30% to 40% chance of something reaching central Maryland. I will be up early to give another update to help you plan should this turn into anything. Here is what my trusty High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model is showing.

Temperatures At Sunrise

—-> slider HRRR Model

Notice how the moisture falls apart east of Hagerstown…

Temperatures at Noon

NAM/WRF

This model often overdoes precipitation. This depiction also is lacking the full winter mode. Needless to say, while I think it is overdone, we can’t ignore it.

By the Afternoon…

The main action will be riding west and north along the mountains as warmer air will be moving in ahead of the main storm

Next Update:

I will be up to check on the situation by 4:30 AM. Should this turn into ‘something’, I will make a post. First I must contact my clients, then I will aim to make an update via social media by 5 AM

Faith in the Flakes Online- Flannel PJs Printed Inside Out

Store Now Open

  • We’ve added Flannel PJ Pants that will be printed inside out. They have to be, to make it snow ?
  • Free Personal Delivery for orders of 20 items or more to schools and businesses.
  • Click this image for the online store.
  • Look for more items to be added soon.
  • Also see the info for the STEM Assembly Spirit Wear program:  Put your school name on the shirts and raise money for you PTO/PTA in the process.

FITF SNOW STICKS

thatcher_snowsticksAvailable in 2 Ft, 30 Inches, and 3 Ft Sizes. Also with Orange/Black or Purple/Black. Click on the image to see the options offered by my friend Thatcher at Signs By Tomorrow in Timonium.

Go to http://www.signsbytomorrow.com/timonium/ to order yours today! Click the ‘Request a Quote’ button at the top of the page. In comment box include color, size and payment information. Please indicate whether you’d like to have us UPS ship them to you or if you would like to pick up in our store. Snow Sticks will ship or will be ready for pick up in our store 48 hrs after order is placed, Mon-Fri.

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook for 2016-2017: Colder with snow spread out more

Maryland Winters

NOAA Winter Outlook for 2016 to 2017

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

Farmers Almanacs Split On Cold And Snow

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: Records Might Surprise You

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals