Monday January 9 – This morning is frigid. No two ways about it. Temps in the lower teens for most and wind chills below zero. Not much of a warm up, even in southern Maryland to the beaches thanks to deep snowpack. Many schools on Maryland’s lower Eastern Shore are closed today due to Saturday storm. Notice the uniform temps staying in the mid 20s.  There will be quite a warm up this week with 60°F by Thursday and Friday! But that does not mean winter is over, by far! However the active jet stream will be producing a few ‘events’ that we need to track. The first one on Tuesday I think will skirt the north side of our region, the second one this weekend could be more of an ice maker. I do want to point out what helped me forecast the last snow storm… there is a trend for storms to verify farther north. So where we see ice setting up next weekend could shift. Let’s take a look:

Afternoon Highs Today

Tuesday Snow/Ice North: —> slider GFS Model

As the warmer air arrives with the next storm, there will be a band of snow and ice arriving. The timing appears to be mid day or afternoon Tuesday. That is not the worst thing as daytime heating wil limit the impact on roads… So timing is key… earlier in the day would be a problem. But the track is also important, and for now it looks like the first flakes or ice pellets will be passing northwest of Baltimore. Should there be anything in central Maryland, it would be very light. If you want a school delay or concerned about travel, the best bet would be freezing drizzle that models have trouble picking up on. I will track this in more detail in this afternoon’s report.

Cold Front

The cold air will try to make a brief return Friday behind the next storm. The location of this will be an important set up for the next storm to follow over the weekend.

Weekend Event

Ice for our region will be termed by how far south the cold front will reach as well asa the strength of that High Pressure center in eastern Canada.

Note the recent model bias for storms verifying farther north. If that holds, this will be more of an issue for central PA. So that trend is worth watching.

 

Jet Stream —> slider

Warm up aloft will mean much of the next two weeks will be warmer than average… but colder air will build up and return. There is plenty of winter left.

Temperature Outlook

 

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Also See:

My Winter Outlook for 2016-2017: Colder with snow spread out more

Maryland Winters

NOAA Winter Outlook for 2016 to 2017

La Nina Formed: What it could mean to our winter

Farmers Almanacs Split On Cold And Snow

Extreme Weather of 2015 balanced out on both ends

Low Snow Winters In Baltimore: Records Might Surprise You

NOAA Ranks Blizzard 2016 4th Worst Snowstorm On Record

Blizzard 2016 Record Top Snowstorm: Area Totals